Kelvin Kiptum breaks the world record in the Rotterdam marathon.

'break':3 'kelvin':1 'kiptum':2 'marathon':10 'record':6 'rotterdam':9 'world':5

Solar eclipse causes serious injury to anyone (news must be from a reputable source)

'anyon':7 'caus':3 'eclips':2 'injuri':5 'must':9 'news':8 'reput':13 'serious':4 'solar':1 'sourc':14

'10':3 'answer':4 'least':2 'resolv':6 'yes':7

Earthquake 8.0 or higher somewhere in the world

'8.0':2 'earthquak':1 'higher':4 'somewher':5 'world':8

'arrest':6 'dui':8 'mlb':2 'nba':4 'nfl':1 'player':5

a tesla catches fire as confirmed by tesla-fire.com/mainstream news

'/mainstream':10 'catch':3 'confirm':6 'fire':4 'news':11 'tesla':2 'tesla-fire.com':9 'tesla-fire.com/mainstream':8

NVIDIA reaches a new all time high stock price 

'high':7 'new':4 'nvidia':1 'price':9 'reach':2 'stock':8 'time':6

two teslas catch fire as reported by tesla-fire.com or other news

'catch':3 'fire':4 'news':11 'report':6 'tesla':2 'tesla-fire.com':8 'two':1

'detroit':2 'game':6 'multipl':5 'piston':3 'win':4

'announc':4 'compani':3 'larg':1 'layoff':5 'tech':2

@Tumbles pays off his Ṁ324,000 debt (due by end of month)

'000':6 'debt':7 'due':8 'end':10 'month':12 'pay':2 'tumbl':1 'ṁ324':5

'adventur':3 'dwarf':1 'fortress':2 'mode':4 'releas':5

https://web3isgoinggreat.com/ has a post for every day of the month

'day':7 'everi':6 'month':10 'post':4 'web3isgoinggreat.com':1

'alex':1 'banned/suspended':4 'jone':2 'x':6

at least one xkcd comic where there are no stick figures at all

'comic':5 'figur':11 'least':2 'one':3 'stick':10 'xkcd':4

$500 in mana sold in a single day during the month

'500':1 'day':8 'mana':3 'month':11 'singl':7 'sold':4

skibidi toilet releases at least two new mainline videos this month (even if individual parts)

'even':12 'individu':14 'least':5 'mainlin':8 'month':11 'new':7 'part':15 'releas':3 'skibidi':1 'toilet':2 'two':6 'video':9

Eliezer Yudkowsky is alive for the entire month

'aliv':4 'eliez':1 'entir':7 'month':8 'yudkowski':2

Eliezer Yudkowsky remains unwavering that the probability of AI annihilation is greater than or equal to 95%

'95':17 'ai':9 'annihil':10 'eliez':1 'equal':15 'greater':12 'probabl':7 'remain':3 'unwav':4 'yudkowski':2

University of Connecticut wins both gender championships in college basketball

'basketbal':10 'championship':7 'colleg':9 'connecticut':3 'gender':6 'univers':1 'win':4

At least one share of nVidia stock is traded for $900 or more during normal, premarket, or aftermarket hours

'900':11 'aftermarket':18 'hour':19 'least':2 'normal':15 'nvidia':6 'one':3 'premarket':16 'share':4 'stock':7 'trade':9

William is King of The United Kingdom at any time during the month

'king':3 'kingdom':7 'month':13 'time':10 'unit':6 'william':1

chris (strutheo) rolls a d100 die at market close, and it lands on a natural 1

'1':16 'chris':1 'close':9 'd100':5 'die':6 'land':12 'market':8 'natur':15 'roll':3 'strutheo':2

Weak AGI exists, as defined by the YES resolution of the Metaculus market on the topic having occurred at any time before the month concludes

'agi':2 'conclud':25 'defin':5 'exist':3 'market':13 'metaculus':12 'month':24 'occur':18 'resolut':9 'time':21 'topic':16 'weak':1 'yes':8

A report that AGI has been achieved occurs on April 1, and it is seriously discussed as possibly being true by a significant number of people, as judged by chris (strutheo)

'1':11 'achiev':7 'agi':4 'april':10 'chris':30 'discuss':16 'judg':28 'number':24 'occur':8 'peopl':26 'possibl':18 'report':2 'serious':15 'signific':23 'strutheo':31 'true':20

An outbreak of at least ten tornadoes causes significant damage in the United States

'caus':8 'damag':10 'least':5 'outbreak':2 'signific':9 'state':14 'ten':6 'tornado':7 'unit':13

'engag':3 'kelc':6 'swift':2 'taylor':1 'travi':5

Dow Jones Industrial Average rises above 43,000

'000':8 '43':7 'averag':4 'dow':1 'industri':3 'jone':2 'rise':5

Alan's conservative countdown to AGI meets or exceeds 69%

'69':10 'agi':6 'alan':1 'conserv':3 'countdown':4 'exceed':9 'meet':7

Adam Something uploads more than 2 videos

'2':6 'adam':1 'someth':2 'upload':3 'video':7

Tumbles is late to pay back a loan https://manifold.markets/Tumbles/will-tumbles-ever-be-late-to-pay-ba

'/tumbles/will-tumbles-ever-be-late-to-pay-ba':11 'back':6 'late':3 'loan':8 'manifold.markets':10 'manifold.markets/tumbles/will-tumbles-ever-be-late-to-pay-ba':9 'pay':5 'tumbl':1

mr beast posts a video that gets over 200M views by EOM

'200m':9 'beast':2 'eom':12 'get':7 'mr':1 'post':3 'video':5 'view':10

By April 30, the "serious national security threat" has impacted the life of the average American in a non-trivial way, as judged by chris (strutheo)

'30':3 'american':16 'april':2 'averag':15 'chris':26 'impact':10 'judg':24 'life':12 'nation':6 'non':20 'non-trivi':19 'secur':7 'serious':5 'strutheo':27 'threat':8 'trivial':21 'way':22

OpenAI Sora released to general availability

'avail':6 'general':5 'openai':1 'releas':3 'sora':2

Alan's conservative countdown to AGI meets or exceeds 75%

'75':10 'agi':6 'alan':1 'conserv':3 'countdown':4 'exceed':9 'meet':7

@ManifoldMarkets posts at least one April Fool on X (former: Twitter)

'april':6 'fool':7 'former':10 'least':4 'manifoldmarket':1 'one':5 'post':2 'twitter':11 'x':9

At least 10 markets which  turn out to be a April Fool (by 10 different users)

'10':3,14 'april':11 'differ':15 'fool':12 'least':2 'market':4 'turn':6 'user':16

S&P 500 reaches new intraday all-time high ([4/01/24] 5,264.85)

'264.85':13 '4/01/24':11 '5':12 '500':3 'all-tim':7 'high':10 'intraday':6 'new':5 'p':2 'reach':4 'time':9

US consumer product safety commission recalls a baby / kids product (not food/consumable)

'babi':8 'commiss':5 'consum':2 'food/consumable':12 'kid':9 'product':3,10 'recal':6 'safeti':4 'us':1

Caitlin Clark plays in and wins championship game

'caitlin':1 'championship':7 'clark':2 'game':8 'play':3 'win':6

The "No Labels" candidate for President fails to poll higher than 15% for the entire month

'15':12 'candid':4 'entir':15 'fail':7 'higher':10 'label':3 'month':16 'poll':9 'presid':6

Someone in masters league loses >90% of their mana net worth for >1 day

'1':13 '90':6 'day':14 'leagu':4 'lose':5 'mana':9 'master':3 'net':10 'someon':1 'worth':11

The San Diego Zoo receives two giant pandas from China

'china':10 'diego':3 'giant':7 'panda':8 'receiv':5 'san':2 'two':6 'zoo':4

'everi':1 'game':6 'lose':4 'nba':2 'team':3

The MLB team that wins the most games is the Dodgers or Braves

'brave':13 'dodger':11 'game':8 'mlb':2 'team':3 'win':5

crane collapse in a major US city's downtown area (not suburbs / single story houses)

'area':10 'citi':7 'collaps':2 'crane':1 'downtown':9 'hous':15 'major':5 'singl':13 'stori':14 'suburb':12 'us':6

the top meme in memefold is made by stefanie OR chris

'chris':11 'made':7 'meme':3 'memefold':5 'stefani':9 'top':2

Joe Biden leaves the United States and does not come back by end of month

'back':11 'biden':2 'come':10 'end':13 'joe':1 'leav':3 'month':15 'state':6 'unit':5

At least five XKCD comics where there are no stick figures at all

'comic':5 'figur':11 'five':3 'least':2 'stick':10 'xkcd':4

'eri':4 'gilmour':1 'launch':6 'rocket':5 'space':2

Bitcoin reaches $60k USD or lower (on the way back down)

'60k':3 'back':10 'bitcoin':1 'lower':6 'reach':2 'usd':4 'way':9

Earthquake 7.5 or higher somewhere in the world

'7.5':2 'earthquak':1 'higher':4 'somewher':5 'world':8

It's the hottest April on record globally

'april':5 'global':8 'hottest':4 'record':7

It's the hottest April on record in the US

A Destiny video released in April surpasses 500k views

'500k':8 'april':6 'destini':2 'releas':4 'surpass':7 'video':3 'view':9

A Destiny video released in 2024 surpasses 1 million views

'1':8 '2024':6 'destini':2 'million':9 'releas':4 'surpass':7 'video':3 'view':10

MrBeast surpasses 255 million subscribers on YouTube

'255':3 'million':4 'mrbeast':1 'subscrib':5 'surpass':2 'youtub':7

An American union with over 1000 members begins a strike

'1000':6 'american':2 'begin':8 'member':7 'strike':10 'union':3

'ceasefir':3 'durat':5 'russia':2 'ukrain':1

The Federal Reserve changes interest rates (up or down)

'chang':4 'feder':2 'interest':5 'rate':6 'reserv':3

Israel / Palestine ceasefire (at least 24 hours)

'24':6 'ceasefir':3 'hour':7 'israel':1 'least':5 'palestin':2

DDoS attack against major software company

'attack':2 'compani':6 'ddos':1 'major':4 'softwar':5

A Russian naval ship is sunk (not just a small boat)

'boat':11 'naval':3 'russian':2 'ship':4 'small':10 'sunk':6

YouTube is the most popular article on Wikipedia

'articl':6 'popular':5 'wikipedia':8 'youtub':1

Biden's approval rating 39.0% or higher at the end of Ramadan

'39.0':5 'approv':3 'biden':1 'end':10 'higher':7 'ramadan':12 'rate':4

Google Search or Home Assistant gets baseline LLM integration

'assist':5 'baselin':7 'get':6 'googl':1 'home':4 'integr':9 'llm':8 'search':2

A One Piece market with over 50 traders resolves

'50':7 'market':4 'one':2 'piec':3 'resolv':9 'trader':8

at least one person from congress announces retirement 

'announc':7 'congress':6 'least':2 'one':3 'person':4 'retir':8

On April 30, 2024, at 11:59:59pm EDT, Anthropic retains the lead in most intelligent coding model (highest in HumanEval) (model must be publically available)

'11':6 '2024':4 '30':3 '59':7 '59pm':8 'anthrop':10 'april':2 'avail':26 'code':17 'edt':9 'highest':19 'humanev':21 'intellig':16 'lead':13 'model':18,22 'must':23 'public':25 'retain':11

On April 30, 2024 at 11:59:59pm EDT, the membership of the Supreme Court of the United States is different than it was on April 1, 2024 at midnight EDT

'1':27 '11':6 '2024':4,28 '30':3 '59':7 '59pm':8 'april':2,26 'court':15 'differ':21 'edt':9,31 'membership':11 'midnight':30 'state':19 'suprem':14 'unit':18

Someone born on February 29th with a Wikipedia page dies.

'29th':5 'born':2 'die':10 'februari':4 'page':9 'someon':1 'wikipedia':8

'master':4 'scheffler':2 'scotti':1 'win':3

Hole in one during competitive play at Masters

'competit':5 'hole':1 'master':8 'one':3 'play':6

Announcement that MrBeast will star in a major theatrical motion picture, in a leading non-cameo role

'announc':1 'cameo':17 'lead':14 'major':8 'motion':10 'mrbeast':3 'non':16 'non-cameo':15 'pictur':11 'role':18 'star':5 'theatric':9

the USA passes more sanctions on israeli citizens or israel itself 

'citizen':8 'isra':7 'israel':10 'pass':3 'sanction':5 'usa':2

Joe Biden makes a serious gaffe that is featured on the front page of the New York Times

'biden':2 'featur':9 'front':12 'gaff':6 'joe':1 'make':3 'new':16 'page':13 'serious':5 'time':18 'york':17

Donald Trump makes a serious gaffe that is featured on the front page of the New York Times

'donald':1 'featur':9 'front':12 'gaff':6 'make':3 'new':16 'page':13 'serious':5 'time':18 'trump':2 'york':17

the '500 poll' on manifold reaches 180 responses

'180':7 '500':2 'manifold':5 'poll':3 'reach':6 'respons':8

If not already removed in March, Mike Johnson removed as Speaker of the House

'alreadi':3 'hous':14 'johnson':8 'march':6 'mike':7 'remov':4,9 'speaker':11

At least one share of nVidia stock is traded for $1000 or more during normal, premarket, or aftermarket hours

'1000':11 'aftermarket':18 'hour':19 'least':2 'normal':15 'nvidia':6 'one':3 'premarket':16 'share':4 'stock':7 'trade':9

Bitcoin reaches a new all-time-high (ATH)

'all-time-high':5 'ath':9 'bitcoin':1 'high':8 'new':4 'reach':2 'time':7

bitcoin reaches 60k or lower on the way back down

'60k':3 'back':9 'bitcoin':1 'lower':5 'reach':2 'way':8

The evening rush hour on April 8, 2024 has the highest ground vehicle traffic volumes in the history of the United States, by media reports as judged by chris (@strutheo)

'2024':8 '8':7 'april':6 'chris':29 'even':2 'ground':12 'highest':11 'histori':18 'hour':4 'judg':27 'media':24 'report':25 'rush':3 'state':22 'strutheo':30 'traffic':14 'unit':21 'vehicl':13 'volum':15

I reserve the right to NA any answer for any reason, to combat duplicates or abuse.