By 2028, will fully AI generated explicit NSFW movies be commonplace?

Question

There is a lot of material out there and as such we cannot say "commonplace" as a % of all the material out there. We will conduct a poll where we ask users to rate how commonly they interact with AI-generated pornography and resolve this question to YES if a majority of them have a significant commonplace interaction.

The explicit NSFW movies refer to pornographic videography

Manifold Markets · Answer

Very likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 83% chance (66 traders, as of Aug 27, 2026).