Will Trump refuse to debate Harris?

Question

per this tweet:

[tweet]if Harris is the Democratic Presidential nominee, will Trump refuse to debate her? resolves for any reason given, whether it's as stated in the above tweet or something else. as Trump often makes inflammatory statements then recants, this market only resolves when it's absolute that there is not a debate and not when Trump makes a remark.

resolves NA if Harris is not the candidate

eta context from the comments:

when will the market resolve?

market resolves either when the two debate (No) or Election Day; any refusals or threats before then are insufficient to resolve this market as mentioned in the above description

what counts as a debate?

to reduce ambiguities, I will consider it a debate if it's called a Debate officially (by the host and participants); if it's marketed as a Town Hall or similar, I won't consider it a Debate

what if Trump's reasons are bad faith?

as the cited original tweet implies Trump may refuse for less-than-good-faith reasons ('illegitimate candidate'), I'll resolve based on his refusal even if it's due to strict and immovable conditions ("I won't debate her unless it's hosted by Fox News on Columbus Day and she wears an orange hat") and he tries to leverage this to shift blame to Harris; note that I'm trying to reduce the chances of a grey area but as none of us are sure what Trump will say, there is a nonzero chance of some subjectivity

adding more clarification due to another question. we're getting into the weeds a bit with semantics in this scenario but:

if Trump offers a debate with terms that could reasonably/technically be met (like only meeting on a network that's favourable to him) but Kamala refuses, I'm inclined to resolve this as No/not consider this for Yes if it's the final say on a debate.

if his statement is framed in such a way that it's the only way he'll debate her (akin to "I'm not debating her unless..."), that verbiage is more clearly a refusal and I'm inclined to resolve Yes if that's the final say/they don't debate.

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

No — resolved on Sep 11, 2024 by Manifold Markets prediction market.