Will this market close below 50%?

Question

Resolves YES if the market displays 49% or lower at close.

Resolves NO if the market displays 50% or higher at close.

The outcome will be determined by the whole-number 'chance' percentage, which is displayed at the top of the market page.

Keep in mind that this number is rounded, so the underlying resolution threshold is 49.5% (probability returned by the API).

This market closes 5 October 2026 at 00:00 UTC.

If I do not resolve this market within 24 hours after closing, a moderator may do so according to above rules.

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

Yes — resolved on Oct 5, 2026 by Manifold Markets prediction market.