How long will it take to create an app that automatically translates sign language live from a video stream?

Question

This market will resolve when an app is publicly available on any app store for mobile phone.

Not that it should be an app able to translate from a video stream. The app should be reliable enough to follow and understand a 10min video with only sign language. The app should be able to translate different people at different distance and under different lightning, etc...   Models pre-trained to understand a few words signed by a single individual (such as:

(https://www.youtube.com/embed/pDXdlXlaCco)) do not count.
The resolution will be established starting from the initial publication of the post (19 of March 2024) and will resolve to one single option  as follow:  if the app is published at anytime between now and 18 of March 2026, the accepted answer will be two years, between 19 of March 2026 and 18th of March 2028 the accepted answer will be 4 and so on. If no app exists after 19 of March 2042 the market will resolve to  more than 18 years  .

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, less than  2 years, followed by less than  4 years and less than  14 years are most likely. See the market for live updates (40 traders, as of Oct 5, 2026).