Will there be a major hurricane in the Atlantic between 08-31-223 and 09-10-2023?

Question

Resolves YES per the NHC if there is a Cat III+ hurricane in the Atlantic by 09-10-2023 0z.

Graph shows the strike probability at 20230911 12z based on the number of ENS members (20230830 12z) that predict a hurricane (each member has equal weight). Strike probability = a hurricane will pass within a 300 km radius from a given location (purple = 5-10%, red = 10-20, organge = 20-30, yellow = 30-40) and within a time window of 48 hours of 20230911 12z.

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Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

Yes — resolved on Sep 7, 2023 by Manifold Markets prediction market.