[PROP BETS] US-Israel strikes on Iran

Question

Just in case anyone asks, since I've added new prop bets since the market opened, the questions that are "within X days" are starting from the day the prop bet was added.

Update 2026-02-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For any answer involving a live address by a leader: pre-recorded speeches broadcast post-mortem will not count toward resolution.

Update 2026-03-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A "major attack" is defined as an incident where at least 5 people die. This includes drones, shooting, and other methods of attack.

Update 2026-03-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): All resolution criteria must be met by the market close time of May 31st, 2026.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Houthis launch a confirmed attack on a US Navy vessel and Houthis/Yemen officially announce they are joining the war are most likely. See the market for live updates (284 traders, as of Mar 23, 2026).