Iran assassinates an Israeli/US government leader

Iran launches retaliatory missile/drone strikes on Israel within 72 hours

Iran attacks a US military base in the Middle East within 7 days

Iran closes or attempts to block the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days

Crude oil prices exceed $90/barrel within 7 days

Any Iranian nuclear facilities are confirmed struck

Ayatollah Khamenei makes a public address within 48 hours

The US Congress invokes or debates the War Powers Resolution within 30 days

A new Supreme Leader is formally named within 30 days

Iran launch strikes directly targeting Saudi oil infrastructure within 14 days

Houthis successfully strike a commercial vessel in the Red Sea within 7 days

Operation Epic Fury strikes continue >= 14 consecutive days

Major US mainland terrorist attack by pro-Iran terrorists

Major European mainland terrorist attack by pro-Iran terrorists