March 2026 AI model releases

Question

Based on prior similar markets for model releases, the following clarifications have been added:

GPT-5.4-Codex is sufficient for GPT-5.4 (as it counted in Feb AI releases market)

Deepseek V4-Lite is sufficient for Deepseek V4 (as there is a certain amount of ambiguity in what kind of model Deepseek will release, and both are sufficiently different from a V3.x release)

Gemini 3.1 Flash Lite is not sufficient for Gemini 3.1 Pro (as there is clear delineation between Flash and Flash Lite in prior model releases, such as the Gemini 2.5 Pro Series)

Update 2026-03-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): GPT-5.3-Instant counts as GPT-5.3 for resolution purposes.

Model tier clarification: Companies have established model tiers that are treated as separate options:

Gemini: Deep Think, Pro, Flash, Flash-Lite (separate tiers)

Anthropic: Opus, Sonnet, Haiku (separate tiers)

OpenAI GPT-5.x: Different suffixes (like Instant, Codex) within the same base version number (e.g., 5.3) count toward that base version, unless explicitly listed as separate options

Update 2026-03-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): New options added to the market:

GPT-5.4-Pro (clarified GPT-5.4 option)

Kimi K3

Deepseek V4 full (original option renamed to V4-Lite)

Opus 4.7

Sonnet 4.7

Grok 4.20 (out of beta)

GPT-5.3-Thinking

GPT-5.3-Pro

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Gemma 4, followed by DeepSeek V4-Lite and DeepSeek V3.3 or V3.5 are most likely. See the market for live updates (133 traders, as of Mar 25, 2026).