Which women's tennis players will reach the 2026 French Open Semifinals?

Question

Resolution criteria

Each of the listed players resolves YES if that player appears as one of the four semifinalists in the 2026 Frenc Open (Roland Garros) Women’s Singles main draw; players resolve NO otherwise. Verification: the official French Open women’s singles draw/results page or PDF and/or the WTA tournament page. Links:

+ https://www.rolandgarros.com/en-us/
+ https://www.wtatennis.com/tournaments/roland-garros

“Other (Any Player Not Listed Above)” resolves YES if at least one of the four semifinalists is not among the named answers; resolves NO if all four semifinalists are from the listed options. For clarity's sake, those listed players are:

🇧🇾 Aryna Sabalenka

🇰🇿 Elena Rybakina

🇵🇱 Iga Swiatek

🇺🇸 Coco Gauff

🇷🇺 Mirra Andreeva

🇺🇦 Marta Kostyuk

🇺🇦 Elina Svitolina

🇺🇸 Jessica Pegula

🇮🇹 Jasmine Paolini

🇨🇿 Karolina Muchova

🇺🇸 Amanda Anisimova

🇨🇳 Qinwen Zheng

🇺🇸 Madison Keys

🇯🇵 Naomi Osaka

🇨🇭 Belinda Bencic

🇷🇺 Anastasia Potapova

🇨🇦 Victoria Mboko

Edge cases: for any players that do not appear in the main draw (withdrawing prior to the tournament for any reason), those players will resolve N/A. If a player plays at least one point in a main draw match, however, and THEN has to retire due to injury before the semifinals, that player will resolve NO. If a player retires during the semifinal matches, that makes no difference to this market. As market creator, I reserve the right to N/A if there is some sort of unforeseen extraordinary circumstance.

Background

Event dates/venue: May 24–Jun 7, 2026, Stade Roland Garros (Paris). The 2026 edition uses a 15-day format starting on a Sunday. Women's semifinals are scheduled for Thu, Jun 4 (afternoon). (rolandgarros.com, atptour.com, wtatennis.com)

Considerations

Only the Women’s Singles main draw counts for the purpose of this market (not doubles, mixed, or juniors).

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, 🇧🇾 Aryna Sabalenka, followed by 🇺🇸 Coco Gauff and 🇰🇿 Elena Rybakina are most likely. See the market for live updates (5 traders, as of May 23, 2026).