Which men's tennis players will reach the 2026 Wimbledon Semifinals?

Question

Resolution criteria

Each of the listed players resolves YES if that player appears as one of the four semifinalists in the 2026 Wimbledon Men’s Singles main draw; players resolve NO otherwise. Verification: the official Wimbledon men’s singles draw/results page or PDF and/or the ATP tournament page. Links:

+ https://www.wimbledon.com/
+ https://www.atptour.com/en/tournaments/wimbledon/540/overview

“Other (Any Player Not Listed Above)” resolves YES if at least one of the four semifinalists is not among the named answers; resolves NO if all four semifinalists are from the listed options. For clarity's sake, those listed players are:

🇮🇹 J. Sinner

🇩🇪 A. Zverev

🇷🇸 N. Djokovic

🇺🇸 B. Shelton

🇺🇸 T. Fritz

🇷🇺 D. Medvedev

🇦🇺 A. De Minaur

🇨🇦 F. Auger Aliassime

🇺🇸 F. Tiafoe

🇰🇿 A. Bublik

🇨🇿 J. Lehecka

🇺🇸 T. Paul

🇫🇷 A. Fils

🇷🇺 A. Rublev

🇦🇷 F. Cerundolo

Edge cases: for any players that do not appear in the main draw (withdrawing prior to the tournament for any reason), those players will resolve N/A. If a player plays at least one point in a main draw match, however, and THEN has to retire due to injury before the semifinals, that player will resolve NO. If a player retires during the semifinal matches, that makes no difference to this market. As market creator, I reserve the right to N/A if there is some sort of unforeseen extraordinary circumstance.

Background

Event dates: June 29–Jul 12, 2026.  Men's semifinals are scheduled for Fri, Jul 10.

Considerations

Only the Men’s Singles main draw counts for the purpose of this market (not doubles, mixed, or juniors).

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, 🇮🇹 J. Sinner, followed by 🇩🇪 A. Zverev and 🇷🇸 N. Djokovic are most likely. See the market for live updates (11 traders, as of Jun 25, 2026).