Will I weigh under 200 lbs on 2024-07-31? (-1.85 lbs per week)

Question

This morning I weighed 267.2 lbs according to my bathroom scale. Will I weigh under 200 lbs according to my bathroom scale on 2024-07-31?

Last time I tried this, it was successful, but I've more than undone all my progress since then, so let's try it again! As it's a commitment aid, I'll only bet yes.

I plan to provide an update in the comments at least once a month. If I forget to weigh in on 2024-07-31 I'll interpolate linearly between the closest weights before and after.

2023-11-19: 267.2 lbs

2023-12-10: 258.4 lbs

2024-01-11: 259.3 lbs

2024-01-31: 251.1 lbs
2024-02-29: 250.1 lbs
2024-03-22: 239.9 lbs

2024-04-01: 244.6 lbs

2024-05-01: 242.3 lbs

2024-06-08: 245.5 lbs

2024-07-04: 248.8 lbs

Successor market:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/phaen/will-i-weigh-under-200-lbs-on-20241)Current short-term market:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/phaen/will-i-eat-under-1750-calories-each)

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

No — resolved on Aug 1, 2024 by Manifold Markets prediction market.