Will Vanuatu record winds (METAR) of at least 90 kt in October 2023?

Question

Will Vanuatu record winds (METAR) from TC Lola of at least 90 kt in October 2023?

This question will reference observations reported through METAR only.

Any other observations will not be considered to contribute to the resolution of the question.

TC Lola is forecast to impact Vanuatu soon (before the end of October), per Fiji's Meteorological Service http://www.met.gov.fj/index.php?page=threadmap:

[image]JTWC's warning advisory shows higher winds:

[image]You can see general information about the METAR here:

http://www.vmgd.gov.vu/vmgd/index.php/forecast-division/aviation-forecast/metar

Resolution criteria, methodology, timing:

This question will reference observations reported through METAR only.

Any other observations will not be considered to contribute to the resolution of the question.

I must be able to observe (from the METAR list below) a wind speed of 90 kt or higher from any one of these METAR stations after October 22, 2023 00Z and before November 1, 2023, 00Z for this to resolve YES.

METAR list: NVSC NVSG NVSL NVSP NVSS NVVA NVVV NVVW

Note:

This question will resolve ahead of resolution time only if Lola dissipates per the Fiji Meteorological Service (RSMC Nadi).

I'll be using metar-go (https://github.com/esperlu/metar) which pulls data from  aviationweather.gov:

go run metar.go -n 70 -m NVSC NVSG NVSL NVSP NVSS NVVA NVVV NVVW

and check for wind speeds at or above 90 kt.

I'll try checking this a few times a day up until resolution time.

Notes on metar-go and METAR stations in Vanuatu:

From metar-go, these are names of the METAR stations belonging to Vanuatu (the first four characters),

metar-go -la VU:

Vanuatu (OC)

NVSC SLH VU Sola Airport (Sola)

NVSG LOD VU Longana Airport (Longana)

NVSL LPM VU Lamap Airport (Lamap)

NVSP NUS VU Norsup Airport (Norsup)

NVSS SON VU Santo Pekoa International Airport (Luganville)

NVVA AUY VU Aneityum Airport (Anatom Island)

NVVV VLI VU Bauerfield International Airport (Port Vila)

NVVW TAH VU Tanna Airport

As far as I can tell NVSL and NVSP (Lamap and Norsup) have not been operational for some time (referencing the METAR database from ogimet.com), but I will include them since it is in the list.

I'll be referencing metar-go since it uses aviation-weather.gov which has the METAR history, but you can also see the latest ones here http://www.vmgd.gov.vu/vmgd/index.php/forecast-division/aviation-forecast/metar

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

No — resolved on Nov 1, 2023 by Manifold Markets prediction market.