Sam Altman will continuously be CEO of OpenAI until the end of the year.

I will think that a Chinese model is the best coding model for a period of at least a week.

I will see a humanoid robot walking around in a non-demo setting

Any of [Coreweave, Nebius, Lambda] declare bankruptcy

Epoch AI will estimate that there has been a training run using more than 5e27 FLOP

I will think that there have been significant advances in continual learning

The METR time horizon will exceed 10 hours.

An open source model will be released with 5T+ total parameters 

The US will allow selling some sort of Blackwell chip to china

The weights of a closed source model from [OA, XAI, GDM, Anthropic] will be stolen/leaked 

There will be federal AI Safety legislation which I think is net positive

There will be an AI capabilities pause lasting at least a month involving frontier companies

The METR time horizon will exceed 20 hours

There will be an AI protest involving more than 100k people

An open millennium prize problem is solved, involving some AI assistance

I will think that there has been significant progress towards models which use neuralese/recurrence

I will think that a model released by Meta is the best coding model for a period of at least a week.

There will be an international treaty/agreement centered on AI

I will think that computer use has significantly improved since 2025

Any of [OpenAI, xAI, Google, Anthropic, Meta] will offer a subscription plan costing >= $1,000/month.

Any of [OpenAI, xAI, Google, Anthropic, Meta] will offer a subscription plan costing >= $10,000/month.

Any of [Coreweave, Nebius, Lambda] will be acquired

Microsoft+Google+Amazon+Meta capex will increase by >=30% vs 2025

OpenAI will introduce ads to ChatGPT in some form

Ilya Sutskever will be on a podcast for more than 30 mins

The bubble collapses in devastating fashion

Anthropic will introduce ads to Claude in some form

Chatgpt will write an explicit sex story without jailbreaks

AAA with LLM powered NPCs releases on Steam

Any of [OpenAI, Microsoft, Google, Anthropic, xAI, Meta] claim to have reached AGI

Dario Amodei will continuously be CEO of Anthropic until the end of the year

GPT-4o remains available to free ChatGPT users at the end of the year

There will be a credible leak about SSI strategy

Ilya Sutskever will continuously be CEO of SSI until the end of the year

The METR time horizon will exceed 40 hours

Largest distributed training run exceeds 1e27 FLOP according to Epoch AI

Anthropic will release a model classified as ASL-4

Anthropic will release a model classified as ASL-5

An open source model will top the Chatbot Arena in the 'text' category

I will think that METR time horizon continues to be an important benchmark

US unemployment rate reaches 10% due in part to AI

Jensen Huang continuously CEO of Nvidia through EOY 2026

I will meet someone who has an AI companion

Schmidhuber will complain about people not citing his work properly

OpenAI will announce some kind of hardware product

There will be clear evidence of egregious scheming in the wild 

Zvi will write a blog post mentioning SSI

Yann Lecun’s AMI lab will release an open weights model of some kind 

SSI will have an update listed at https://ssi.inc/updates

I will think that SSI has the best coding model in the world for a period of at least a week 

China will invade Taiwan according to metaculus 

Any of [OpenAI, xAI, Google, Anthropic, Meta] releases an LLM (general-purpose or code-only) pretrained largely on licensed data

At least 3 people will do an anti-AI hunger strike

Thinking Machines will train and release their own model

Thinking machines will post at least 10 blog posts at https://thinkingmachines.ai/blog/

I will watch a fully AI-generated film lasting at least an hour

Yudkowsky will publish a post on Lesswrong 

Anthropic will release an image/video model

OpenAI will sell their own chips to external customers

A Solid Result in FrontierMath: Open Problems is solved by AI

Please add questions for what will happen in 2026 related to AI! I've added some clarifications below. If there is ambiguity I will resolve to my best judgement. 

"SSI will release a product": It should be generally available in 2026; i.e. no waitlist. Should be an AI product; I’m not counting hats, clothing, etc. 

"X will outperform the S&P": As measured at the end of the year. It's not sufficient for X to outperform at some point in the year. 

"An LLM will beat me at chess": See this market: 

“Epoch AI will estimate that there has been a training run using more than 5e27 FLOP” : according to this 

 or some other official announcement by the org. 

"The METR time horizon will exceed X hours": At 50% success rate, acoording to this 

“Frontier Math Tier X >= Y%” refers to the top score on this 

. The current top scores as of 2025-12-21 is 40.7% for Tier 1-3 and 18.8% for Tier 4.

“An open millennium prize problem is solved, involving some AI assistance”: refers to 

 famously difficult mathematics problems.

“Epoch Capabilities Index >= X” refers to this 

. The current leader as of 2025-12-18 is 154.

"Yudkowsky will publish a new book": It should be avalible to (pre)order some time in 2026. Resolves no if they announce it but you can't (pre)order it somewhere. 

"Metaculus will predict AGI before 2030" means that at some point in 2026, this 

 has an estimate before 2030. The current estimate as of 2025-12-24 is May 2033. 

"There will be an AI capabilities pause lasting at least a month involving frontier companies": This means that there is an agreement between frontier companies not to advance capabilities. Frontier companies not releasing new models for a month does not resolve this market. 

"My median ASI timelines will shorten": My current estimate as of 2025-12-27 is March 2033.

"My P(doom) at EOY (resolves to %)" : Resolves to a %, rather at the end of year, except in the unlikely case that it's 0 or 100%, in which case I'll resolve NO or YES. My current estimate as of 2025-12-27 is 25%.  

"An open source model will top Chatbot Arena in the 'text' category": This refers to this 

"US unemployment rate reaches 10% due in part to AI": Based on this 

"Schmidhuber will continue to complain about people not citing his work properly", e.g. 

“Thinking Machines will train and release their own model”: from scratch, not a finetune of another model