The company will release a publicly available API for an AI model

The company will publish a peer-reviewed paper with more than 1000 citations

The company will release a model scoring >= 1300 elo in the chatbot arena leaderboard

The company will be valued at >= $1 Billion according to a reputable news source (e.g. Forbes, Reuters, NYT)

The company will be valued at >= $10 Billion according to a reputable news source (e.g. Forbes, Reuters, NYT)

The company will be valued at >= $100 Billion according to a reputable news source (e.g. Forbes, Reuters, NYT)

The company will be valued at >= $1 Trillion according to a reputable news source (e.g. Forbes, Reuters, NYT)

The company will have at least 100 employees 

The company will be acquired by another company 

The company will be reported to purchase at least $1 Billion in AI hardware, including cloud resources 

The company will release a model scoring in the top 3 of the chatbot arena leaderboard 

The company will announce that their model scores >= 85 MMLU

The company will announce that their model scores >= 50 GPQA

The company will open offices outside of the US and Israel 

At least one of the founders (Ilya Sutskever, Daniel Gross, Daniel Levy) will leave the company

The company will announce that their path to superintelligence involves creating an automated AI researcher 

I will believe at EOY 2025 that the company has made significant progress in AI Alignment 

The company will announce a commitment to spend at least 20% of their compute on AI Safety/Alignment 

The company will be reported to acquire an Aluminum manufacturing plant for its long term power contract

Leopold Aschenbrenner will join the company 

The company’s model weights will be leaked/stolen

The company will have a group of more than 10 people working on Mechanistic Interpretability 

The company will announce that their path to superintelligence involves self-play/synthetic data 

The phrase “Feel the AGI” or “Feel the ASI” will be published somewhere on the company website

The company will be listed as a “Frontier Lab” on https://ailabwatch.org/companies/

The company will publish a Responsible Scaling Policy or similar document (e.g. OpenAI’s Preparedness Framework)

The company will publish a research paper written entirely by their AI system

The company will advocate for a AI scaling pause or will endorse such a proposal (e.g. https://futureoflife.org/open-letter/pause-giant-ai-experiments/)

The company will invite independent researchers/orgs to do evals on their models 

The company will build their own AI chips 

The company will announce that they have created Superintelligence 

The company release a video generation demo made by their AI system 

I will believe at EOY 2025 the company has made significant advances in robotics or manufacturing 

The company will release a new AI or AI safety benchmark (e.g. MMLU, GPQA)

Their model will be the first to get a gold medal or equivalent in IMO (International Mathematics Olympiad)

Their model will be able to play Chess, Shogi, or Go at least as well as the best human players

The company will announce that they are on track to develop superintelligence by EOY 2030 or earlier 

The company will finish a training run reported to use more than 10^24 FLOP (e.g. by Epoch AI)

The company will finish a training run reported to use more than 10^25 FLOP (e.g. by Epoch AI)

The company will finish a training run reported to use more than 10^26 FLOP (e.g. by Epoch AI)

The company will finish a training run reported to use more than 10^27 FLOP (e.g. by Epoch AI)

The company will finish a training run reported to use more than 10^28 FLOP (e.g. by Epoch AI)

The company will finish a training run reported to use more than 10^29 FLOP (e.g. by Epoch AI)

The company will finish a training run reported to use more than 10^30 FLOP (e.g. by Epoch AI)

The company will be valued at >= $10 Trillion according to a reputable news source (e.g. Forbes, Reuters, NYT)

Major algorithmic secrets (e.g architecture, training methods) will be leaked/stolen

The company will sell any products or services before EOY 2025

The company will be reported to build a data center with a peak power consumption of >= 1 GW

I will believe at EOY 2025 that the company has significantly advanced AI capabilities 

The company will announce research or models related to automated theorem proving (e.g. https://openai.com/index/generative-language-modeling-for-automated-theorem-proving/)

It will be reported that Sam Altman is an investor in the company 

It’s reported that the company’s model scores >= 90 on the ARC-AGI challenge (public or private version)

I will meet an employee of the company in person (currently true for OAI, Anthropic, xAI but not Deepmind)

Elon musk will be an investor of the company 

The company will release a model that reaches the #1 rank in the Chatbot Arena (including sharing the #1 rank with other models when their confidence intervals overlap)

The company will release a chatbot or any other AI system which accepts text input 

The company will release an app available on iPhone or android 

The company will publish research related to Neural Turing Machines 

The company will publish at least 5 papers in peer reviewed journals 

A majority of people believe that the company has been net-positive for the world according to a poll released at EOY 2025

Zvi will mention the company in a blog post 

Zvi will mention the company in a blog post in 2025

The company will publish an assessment of the model’s dangerous capabilities (e.g. https://www.anthropic.com/news/frontier-threats-red-teaming-for-ai-safety)

The company will publish research related specifically to Sparse Autoencoders 

The company will include at least one image on its website 

There will be a public protest or boycott directed against the company with more than 100 members 

The company will be involved in a lawsuit 

Ilya will give a presentation on research done at the company 

The company will have a public contract with the US government to develop some technology 

The company will publish research related to Singular Learning Theory 

The company will be valued at >= $100 Million according to a reputable news source (e.g. Forbes, Reuters, NYT)

The company will open source its model weights or training algorithms 

It will be reported that a model produced by the company will self-exfiltrate, or attempt to do so

I will believe at EOY 2025 that the company has built an fully automated AI researcher 

The company will be closer to building ASI than any other AI Lab at EOY 2025, as judged by a manifold poll

The company will publish research which involves collaboration with at least 5 members of another leading AI lab (e.g. OAI, GDM, Anthropic, xAI) 

Ilya will remain at the company continuously until EOY 2025, or until the company is acquired/ceases to exist 

The majority of their compute will come from Nvidia GPUs

The company will be reported to build a data center with a peak power consumption of >=10 GW

The company will be reported to build a data center with a peak power consumption of >=100 GW

The company will raise more than $1 billion of capital 

It will be reported that Nvidia is an investor in the company 

The company’s AI will be involved in an accident which causes at least $10 million in damages 

The company will be on track to build ASI by 2030, according to a Manifold poll conducted at EOY 2025

The company’s model will independently solve an open mathematical conjecture created before 2024

Ilya will discuss the company on a podcast 

I will believe the company should have invested more in AI Safety relative to Capabilities at EOY 2025 

The company will be merged with or acquired by another company 

The company will announce that their path to superintelligence involves continuous chain of thought

The official SSI X account will have more than 100k followers

The official SSI X account will have more than 200k followers

The official SSI X account will have more than 1M followers

 today that he will be creating a new company Safe Superintelligence (SSI). What will be true of this company by EOY 2025? 

Answers will resolve early if the criteria are met before EOY 2025. Answers starting with “I will believe” refer to 

 , the market creator, unless otherwise specified. I will resolve NO for all questions without evidence. E.g. “The model will score > 85 on MMLU” will resolve NO if no one demonstrates that their model has achieved this score, even if it seems likely that it will if tested.

If you see a question you’d like to resolve early, please post a comment below. Feel free to add answers to this question. 