[Metaculus] Will there be reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 before 2026?

Question

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.

(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/26328/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria

This question will resolve as Yes if, after July 17, 2024, and before January 1, 2026, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reports that at least one case of human-to-human spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 has occurred globally.

Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.

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Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

No — resolved on Mar 7, 2026 by Manifold Markets prediction market.