[Metaculus] Will there be 400 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2024?

Question

Will there be 400 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2024?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.

Resolution criteria

This question will resolve as Yes if, after October 12, 2023 and before January 1, 2024, credible sources report that there have been 400 or more deaths caused by armed conflict between the military forces or law enforcement personnel of Israel and Hezbollah.

This market is managed by a bot. Once the original question resolves this market should automatically resolve the next time the bot is run. If the original resolved more than a day ago and this question is still open, ping @jskf. I might resolve this N/A if I find out it's a duplicate of an existing question within three days of market creation.

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

No — resolved on Jan 2, 2024 by Manifold Markets prediction market.