[Metaculus] Will an International AI regulatory agency for oversight of transformative AI be established before 2030?

Question

Will an international AI regulatory agency, like IAEA, for oversight of transformative AI systems be established before 2030?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.

Resolution criteria

This question resolves as Yes if, on January 1st 2030, at least 20 countries accept the statutes of an actively operating organization that regulates transformative AI projects by monitoring the capabilities of AI labs in those countries. The question resolves as No otherwise.

This market is managed by a bot. Once the original question resolves this market should automatically resolve the next time the bot is run. If the original resolved more than a day ago and this question is still open, ping @jskf. I might resolve this N/A if I find out it's a duplicate of an existing question within three days of market creation.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 66% chance (20 traders, as of Mar 20, 2025).