[Metaculus] Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2030?

Question

Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2030?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.

(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/19767/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria

This question will resolve as Yes if, before January 1, 2030, reporting from credible sources indicates that a United States aircraft carrier has been sunk, destroyed, or damaged such that it must be decommissioned due to enemy military action. This question pertains to the carrier vehicle (CVs) class, NOT helicopter carriers (such as LHD's).

Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.

Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 22% chance (14 traders, as of Mar 5, 2026).