Will there be a Russian - American prisoner swap in 2024? 🇷🇺🇺🇸🤝

Question

Russia is holding a couple of Americans whom the US State department says have been wrongfully detained including: Paul Whelan (since ‘18) and Evan Gershkovich (since March).

In 2022, Russia swapped Brittney Griner for Victor Bout. Will there be another prisoner swap between Russia and the US in 2024?

For this to count, the jailed American must be on US (or allied) soil before the end of 2024. The released American doesn’t necessarily need to be Evan or Paul either.

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

Yes — resolved on Aug 1, 2024 by Manifold Markets prediction market.