Biden will mention both nuclear power and nuclear weaponry

'biden':1 'mention':3 'nuclear':5,8 'power':6 'weaponri':9

Biden will include a dig aimed at Haley, Trump, or DeSantis

'aim':6 'biden':1 'desanti':11 'dig':5 'haley':8 'includ':3 'trump':9

Biden will tell a story of 1 specific, non-celebrity American who is now dead (e.g. mass victim shooting, COVID patient…etc.)

'1':7 'american':12 'biden':1 'celebr':11 'covid':21 'dead':16 'e.g':17 'etc':23 'mass':18 'non':10 'non-celebr':9 'patient':22 'shoot':20 'specif':8 'stori':5 'tell':3 'victim':19

'biden':1 'ceasefir':6 'mention':3 'word':5

The Supreme Court Justices clap in response to at least three things 

'clap':5 'court':3 'justic':4 'least':10 'respons':7 'suprem':2 'thing':12 'three':11

Mike Johnson will clap when no one else is clapping 👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼

'clap':4,10 'els':8 'johnson':2 'mike':1 'one':7

Somebody in the room screams "rationalussy"

'rationalussi':6 'room':4 'scream':5 'somebodi':1

Israel will be the first country (other than the US) mentioned

'countri':6 'first':5 'israel':1 'mention':11 'us':10

Someone says free Palestine (can be a protester)

'free':3 'palestin':4 'protest':8 'say':2 'someon':1

Biden will say the word "folks" at least two times

'biden':1 'folk':6 'least':8 'say':3 'time':10 'two':9 'word':5

Biden will announce that Sweden has officially joined NATO

'announc':3 'biden':1 'join':8 'nato':9 'offici':7 'sweden':5

Biden will congratulate the new Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson.

'biden':1 'congratul':3 'hous':9 'johnson':11 'mike':10 'new':5 'speaker':6

Biden will acknowledge Mitch McConnell stepping down and recognize him for his years of service.

'acknowledg':3 'biden':1 'mcconnel':5 'mitch':4 'recogn':9 'servic':15 'step':6 'year':13

Kate Cox will either be mentioned or in view when Biden addresses abortion policies.

'abort':13 'address':12 'biden':11 'cox':2 'either':4 'kate':1 'mention':6 'polici':14 'view':9

Marjorie Taylor Greene will make a fool of herself during the event.

'event':12 'fool':7 'green':3 'make':5 'marjori':1 'taylor':2

Biden will say the word “abortion”, and not use a euphemism

'abort':6 'biden':1 'euphem':11 'say':3 'use':9 'word':5

Biden will make a verbal gaffe mentioned in a New York Times article

'articl':13 'biden':1 'gaff':6 'make':3 'mention':7 'new':10 'time':12 'verbal':5 'york':11

'biden':1 'predecessor':6 'term':4 'use':2

Planet other than Earth mentioned by name

'earth':4 'mention':5 'name':7 'planet':1

The names Barack, Michelle, or Obama are mentioned

'barack':3 'mention':8 'michell':4 'name':2 'obama':6

Artificial intelligence is mentioned (AI, LLMs, any clear euphemism)

'ai':5 'artifici':1 'clear':8 'euphem':9 'intellig':2 'llms':6 'mention':4

'explicit':1 'pro':3 'pro-union':2 'statement':5 'union':4

'5':5 'china':1 'mention':2 'name':4 'time':8

'arab':2 'joe':8 'said':6 'word':5 'yiddish':4

Three or more bipartisan standing ovations (clear supermajority)

'bipartisan':4 'clear':7 'ovat':6 'stand':5 'supermajor':8 'three':1

Member of the Joint Chiefs shown on camera smiling

'camera':8 'chief':5 'joint':4 'member':1 'shown':6 'smile':9

Biden mentions anything about mental acuity, either his or in a general sense 

'acuiti':6 'anyth':3 'biden':1 'either':7 'general':12 'mental':5 'mention':2 'sens':13

The upcoming presidential election will be mentioned

'elect':4 'mention':7 'presidenti':3 'upcom':2

Biden mentions at least one of his children

'biden':1 'children':8 'least':4 'mention':2 'one':5

There will be a broadcasted sign language live translation. 

'broadcast':5 'languag':7 'live':8 'sign':6 'translat':9

Biden will use an antiquated term to mock someone (i.e. "lying dog-faced pony soldier")

'antiqu':5 'biden':1 'dog':13 'dog-fac':12 'face':14 'i.e':10 'lie':11 'mock':8 'poni':15 'soldier':16 'someon':9 'term':6 'use':3

Catastrophic attack occurs and designated survivor is sworn in as President

'attack':2 'catastroph':1 'design':5 'occur':3 'presid':11 'survivor':6 'sworn':8

Yemen, the Houthis, or the Red Sea are mentioned

'houthi':3 'mention':9 'red':6 'sea':7 'yemen':1

'american':5 'biden':1 'fellow':4 'say':2

'biden':1 'border':4 'mention':2 'mexico':6

Biden mentions a US territory (Puerto Rico, American Samoa, Guam, Northern Marianas Islands, US Virgin Islands)

'american':8 'biden':1 'guam':10 'island':13,16 'mariana':12 'mention':2 'northern':11 'puerto':6 'rico':7 'samoa':9 'territori':5 'us':4,14 'virgin':15

Designated Survivor is a Washington's Cabinet position (Attorney General, Secretary of State, Defense, Treasury)

'attorney':9 'cabinet':7 'defens':14 'design':1 'general':10 'posit':8 'secretari':11 'state':13 'survivor':2 'treasuri':15 'washington':5

Celestial bodies other than Earth are mentioned by name [e.g The Sun, The Moon, Planets and Asteroids, but not just the term "star" or "stars"]

'asteroid':17 'bodi':2 'celesti':1 'e.g':10 'earth':5 'mention':7 'moon':14 'name':9 'planet':15 'star':23,25 'sun':12 'term':22

Biden will wear a tie with some red color 

'biden':1 'color':9 'red':8 'tie':5 'wear':3

“Congratulations” used 3 or more times

Biden discussed Democrats and Republicans working together

'biden':1 'democrat':3 'discuss':2 'republican':5 'togeth':7 'work':6

Biden mentions three or more former presidents

'biden':1 'former':6 'mention':2 'presid':7 'three':3

'mention':3 'president/harris':2 'vice':1

The State of the Union YouTube video on Whitehouse’s channel longer than 1 hour 20 mins

'1':14 '20':16 'channel':11 'hour':15 'longer':12 'min':17 'state':2 'union':5 'video':7 'whitehous':9 'youtub':6

 sign language live translation done by a female interpreter 

'done':5 'femal':8 'interpret':9 'languag':2 'live':3 'sign':1 'translat':4

Specific controlled substance mentioned (fentanyl, marijuana, etc.)

'control':2 'etc':7 'fentanyl':5 'marijuana':6 'mention':4 'specif':1 'substanc':3

Someone whispers in Biden's ear while he's giving the speech

'biden':4 'ear':6 'give':10 'someon':1 'speech':12 'whisper':2

Biden says the word "trans" and/or "transgender"

'and/or':6 'biden':1 'say':2 'tran':5 'transgend':7 'word':4

'biden':1 'empir':5 'mention':2 'roman':4

The Effective Altruism movement (or a prominent organisation/individual that is part of it) is mentioned

'altruism':3 'effect':2 'mention':15 'movement':4 'organisation/individual':8 'part':11 'promin':7

Higher viewership than 2023 State of the Union (>23.7m viewers according to Nielsen ratings) 

'2023':4 '23.7':9 'accord':12 'higher':1 'm':10 'nielsen':14 'rate':15 'state':5 'union':8 'viewer':11 'viewership':2

Biden will mention polling about the presidential election

'biden':1 'elect':8 'mention':3 'poll':4 'presidenti':7

Biden will mention that it's the latest date ever for a Stare of the Union address.

'address':17 'biden':1 'date':9 'ever':10 'latest':8 'mention':3 'stare':13 'union':16

'alexei':3 'biden':1 'mention':2 'navalni':4

The speech begins at 9 PM ET/ 6PM PT. You can watch the speech alongside this market and live chat at 

This market will close once the State of the Union has been 

. I’ll probably wait until the speech is uploaded online to resolve a few of the more tedious ones.