Will Germany tighten its refugee policy before 2030?

Question

Germany's right-wing party AfD is rising in polls. The strongest reason to vote for them seems to be current immigration policy, which the AfD wants to tighten. More precisely, it is the refugee policy for asylum seekers. While it is unlikely that the AfD will get into the government, the current favorite, CDU, is shifting their positions to the right. Thus, it seems possible that during the next legislative period 2025-2029 the government might give in to these demands.

Resolves YES if Germany's refugee policy is significantly tightened before 2030.

Resolves NO otherwise.

What does "significantly tightened" mean? A popular call is to follow Sweden's example, as they turned from one of europe's most open to a very closed country. What did they do?

Deny entry without a passport.

Reducing times for residence permits.

Denying family reunion.

Stopping allowance after some time.

If Germany adapt their policies like this, it would be significant. It should affect hundreds of thousands of people.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Very likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 84% chance (53 traders, as of Feb 18, 2026).