If Germany stops giving Ukraine heavy weapons, will Ukraine still exist in 2030?

Question

Heavy weapons are tanks, artillery, and jets.

Resolves NA immediately if Ukraine says they don't need heavy weapons anymore. Also NA if Germany plans to send more heavy weapons at close date.

Resolves YES if Ukraine still exists at close date. Existance in the sense of a country according to german maps.

Resolves NO if current german maps at close date show no Ukraine.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 96% chance (14 traders, as of Apr 15, 2026).