Will Russia launch a full scale military attack against Poland by the end of 2029?

Question

If Russia exerts kinetic military action in the territory of Poland by December 31st, 2029, then the resolution of this market will be “Yes”. Kinetic military action excludes electronic and cybernetic war resources and includes the shooting of projectiles, troops, and military vehicles deployment inside a territory.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 6% chance (22 traders, as of Apr 1, 2026).