Will Tesla provide (or be included in) an autonomous ride-hailing service before the end of 2026

Question

The service allows anyone within some area (possibly a restricted area, possibly not) to hail an autonomous Tesla. They are either not able to or not required to drive it themselves.

Dec 3, 7:12pm: Will Tesla provide an autonomous driving service before the end of 2026 → Will Tesla provide (or be included in) an autonomous ride-hailing service before the end of 2026

Update 2026-01-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will not resolve YES until the service has a larger number of cars operating in the area. A small pilot program where most hail attempts result in a safety driver does not meet the resolution requirements for an autonomous service.

Update 2026-01-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the market to resolve YES, wait times must stay under 20 minutes over a practically broad area to count as the service being available.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 65% chance (117 traders, as of Apr 26, 2026).