Will Tesla provide (or be included in) an autonomous ride-hailing service before the end of 2026

Question

The service allows anyone within some area (possibly a restricted area, possibly not) to hail an autonomous Tesla. They are either not able to or not required to drive it themselves.

Dec 3, 7:12pm: Will Tesla provide an autonomous driving service before the end of 2026 → Will Tesla provide (or be included in) an autonomous ride-hailing service before the end of 2026

Update 2026-01-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will not resolve YES until the service has a larger number of cars operating in the area. A small pilot program where most hail attempts result in a safety driver does not meet the resolution requirements for an autonomous service.

Update 2026-01-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the market to resolve YES, wait times must stay under 20 minutes over a practically broad area to count as the service being available.

Update 2026-05-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is waiting for clearer evidence that the service is meeting demand before resolving YES. Currently, wait-time tracking data is unavailable, making it impossible to verify whether the service meets the criteria (wait times under 20 minutes over a practically broad area).

Update 2026-05-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator acknowledges that wait time is an imperfect metric and that no single ungameable metric exists. The market may not hinge solely on wait times — the creator will use judgment across multiple indicators of whether a real, broadly available service is being provided, rather than a small-scale public spectacle.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 42% chance (120 traders, as of May 28, 2026).