IF Andy Burnham leads Labour into the next General Election, will Labour win?

Question

‘Win’ means wins the most seats in parliament.

I have included as separate scenarios the possibility that he might change the voting system (to something other than FPTP)  before the next General Election.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Labour LOSES next General Election (led by Andy Burnham, using FPTP), followed by Labour WINS next General Election (led by Andy Burnham, under FPTP) and Andy Burnham does not lead Labour into the next General Election are most likely. See the market for live updates (7 traders, as of Jul 22, 2026).