On Oct 1, 2024, will there be more Meta Quest 3 devices sold than Apple Vision Pro devices?

Question

Meta announced their Quest 3. I was curious how the market thinks about how many devices are sold.

Some considerations:

Meta Quest 3 will be significantly cheaper than Apple Vision Pro

There's def much more hype around Apple Vision Pro at the moment

Apple Vision Pro exact release date is still unclear

Some notes:

Pre-orders count as devices sold

If the number of devices sold between the two devices does not differ by more than 5%, I will resolve N/A to account for errors in reporting

Market closes on Nov 1 to allow for some time in reporting the numbers.

Market can close earlier than Nov (but not earlier than Oct 1) if clear evidence is available to resolve. If I close before Nov 1, I will give a heads up of 24h

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

Yes — resolved on Nov 2, 2024 by Manifold Markets prediction market.