Will a human land on the moon by this [YEAR]?

Question

Once a human lands on the moon in year X, all the years after the year X will resolve to YES as well.

The "human" landing on the "moon" must be a safe landing in the sense that the human lands on the moon alive. That's all that matters.

i will resolve the 2024 option soon after the creation of the market, as it was only to create continuity.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, 2033, followed by 2032 and 2031 are most likely. See the market for live updates (63 traders, as of Nov 2, 2026).