Will a woman be elected as the President of the United States before the end of 2040?

Question

This question will resolve as YES if a woman is elected as the President of the United States in any presidential election held before December 31, 2040. The election must take place through the constitutional process and result in a woman assuming the office of the President of the United States.

A woman who serves as Vice President and assumes the office of the President due to the President's death, resignation, or removal from office would not count as a "woman elected as the President."

If a woman is elected as President but is unable to assume office due to death, incapacity, or other reasons, this would still count as a YES resolution as long as the election process had been completed.

For the sake of this market I'll define a woman as someone identifying as a woman at the time of being elected. So trans women are women.  Someone identifying as something else, be it a man, genderfluid, etc., will NOT count, even if biologically female. I'm sorry if this changes the odds a lot, just wanted to be more concrete.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 67% chance (157 traders, as of Aug 2, 2026).