Will China's Defense Minister Li Shangfu die in a plane crash?

Question

Resolves YES if there are credible reports he has died in a plane crash (regardless of whether he is defense minister at the time). Resolves NO if there are credible reports he has died for some other reason. If he lives forever this market does not resolve.

See also:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/getby/will-chinas-defense-minister-li-sha)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 4% chance (9 traders, as of Oct 20, 2023).