Will AI contribute novel theorywork to agent foundations before 2028?

Question

Resolves YES if either John Wentworth, Thane Ruthenis, or David Lorell publicly states something to the effect of "AI did something novel/surprising/non-obvious" regarding their own or field-adjacent agent-foundations work, ORN. If ambiguous, I will personally message the named people for them to resolve this market on their own. If I couldn't reach out to them, or they somehow disagree with each other, I will resolve N/A.

I may modify this market's description within 48 hours after market creation

context: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gko3r6hvkSXrbDFPD/ai-for-agent-foundations-etc?commentId=JgyrFpenpLukwrqhq

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 31% chance (4 traders, as of Jul 25, 2026).