[M5000 subsidy] Will 10,000+ people receive Lantern Bioworks' cavity prevention treatment by 2030?

Question

Lantern Bioworks is attempting to cure cavities via a treatment that modifies the oral microbiome; see this manifund proposal and this precondition market. (https://manifold.markets/embed/Austin/if-funded-will-lantern-bioworks-suc)~~If they achieve their bioengineering goal~~ They have achieved their bioengineering goal. Will they be able to get "shots in arms" (or, uh, "bacteria in mouths") at a 10,000-person scale by 2030? (Participants treated in trials count.) It's not clear how public this information will be, though hopefully they'll be willing to share. Resolution may be delayed. If 6+ months after close it seems like we won't get a concrete answer, may resolve to % based on my credence that this has happened. I will not bet.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 60% chance (119 traders, as of Sep 15, 2026).