Will the Lumina oral probiotic treatment reduce the rate of cavities by at least 50% in the 4 years after application?

Question

If a proper study is conducted, will resolve based on that. Otherwise, the resolver will attempt collect data to resolve the market. Resolution will be based on the informed judgement of the resolver about what best fits the intent. Resolver is me by default, or the manifold moderation team if my resolution is disputed. In the absence of a well-conducted study, the estimate will necessarily be imperfect.

Feel free to suggest improved criteria

Update 2026-06-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator intends to resolve this market NO, based on an update referenced in an Astral Codex Ten open thread, using their informed judgment as outlined in the resolution criteria.

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

No — resolved on Jul 1, 2026 by Manifold Markets prediction market.