Update: new 1 year poll is live! This poll 

 asks participants: "What do you believe was the probability that SBF committed willful fraud in the FTX collapse?

In 1 year (November 2023), I will create another instance of the same poll. Resolves to the average (mean) poll response at that time.

In the immediate days after the FTX collapse, a lot of people have quickly concluded that it was willful fraud (e.g. that FTX intentionally loaned out customer deposits which they had committed not to). With the limited information available early on, I believe there is substantial but far from conclusive evidence in favor of this, and that the evidence and information is rapidly changing, and that many people are jumping to conclusions too quickly. You can find a copy of a post I made on this topic at 

https://manifold.markets/post/in-defense-of-sbf#jIGvMdkFDKDltmegirwJ

 tl;dr: FTX's failure to hold customer deposits as fully backed deposits seems like it could very plausibly be a combination of bad judgement, terrible accounting practices, and mistakes rather than fraud. I'm not claiming it's likely, just claiming that it's not beyond a reasonable doubt.

This market is an attempt to quantify the degree of certainty the community has on this question. Many people have been acting as if it is basically 100%, while a seemingly smaller minority believes it is substantially less. This is a type of prediction quesiton, and of course we can resolve different predictions by making a market on it.