Resolves based on the Case-Shiller US national home price index https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA. The most recent reported value was for Feb 2022. Resolves YES if the value of the index for June 2022 is higher than the value for April 2022.

Background on some factors that are likely important to housing prices:
- Interest rates are rising currently as the Fed combats inflation. Rising interest rates typically lead to lower house prices, because by making mortgages more expensive it reduces the affordability of housing. However, this trend may not be holding right now: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/31/upshot/home-prices-mortgage-rates.html
- The stock market has fallen sharply over the past few months. Housing prices and the stock market have some complex interactions, but they are typically positively correlated. One reason is that as the economy worsens, potential home buyers are less able to afford expensive houses.
- There's a shortage in the house building industry due to pandemic-related supply chain problems: https://www.npr.org/2022/03/29/1089174630/housing-shortage-new-home-construction-supply-chain

Related: https://manifold.markets/jack/how-will-ny-housing-prices-change-o

Close date updated to 2022-09-01 11:59 pm