Will Ukraine hold western Bakhmut through May 15?

Question

Resolution

Resolves NO if at any point in time, Russia claims control of Bakhmut Children's Hospital in the western part of Bakhmut, Ukraine, by May 15, 2023 according to maps provided by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Otherwise YES.

If this location is shaded orange or red on the ISW maps, the market will resolve NO. If this area remains unshaded for the entire time period, resolves YES. Resolution will be based on the ISW maps dated through May 15.

Background

Bakhmut has been a focal point of ongoing fighting in the Ukraine-Russia war, and there are many key questions like: Will Russia will advance to capture all of Bakhmut quickly or will Ukraine will stall Russia's advance? Will Ukraine withdraw or keep fighting in Bakhmut? What is the interplay between Wagner and the Russian Ministry of Defense? This question is a specific, objective question which helps reflect those.

Resolution details

The specific location used for this question is: on the ISW interactive map, the dot if you search the address:

улица Юбилейная, 54, Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, 84501

which is the address of Bakhmut Children's Hospital from Google Maps. The shading of the map over the center of the dot when fully zoomed in will be used for resolution.

See https://manifold.markets/post/isw-ukraine-war-maps for context on how ISW maps are made, what they mean, and why ISW is a commonly considered a reliable map source.

This location is pictured below with the map as of April 15.

[image](Other map sources or reliable media reporting may be used instead if for some reason ISW is unavailable. In that event, the deadline will be the end of day Ukraine time.)

Closely related, but using only red shading: https://manifold.markets/jack/will-russia-control-western-bakhmut

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

Yes — resolved on May 16, 2023 by Manifold Markets prediction market.