Resolves YES if the US federal government defaults on its debt or fails to pay its bills on time in 2023 in a non-technical manner. Otherwise NO.

Here debt is not just Treasury bond debt, but also US government obligations like Social Security, Medicare, military spending, etc. So if any form of "

 to pay a government bill would constitute a debt default

A "technical default" (a delay to payments for technical reasons not indicative of its ability or willingness to repay debt) does not count as YES. For example:

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sovereign-default.asp

 for what I mean by "technical default", which would not count as YES.

If a country briefly delays interest payments for a few of its bonds for technical reasons not indicative of its ability or willingness to repay debt, as the 

 did once in the 1970s, it might have technically defaulted for a time. So long as the repayment snag is quickly ironed out, such a "default" is unlikely to have any long-term consequences, or to be widely viewed as one.

See also this market on a default on Treasury bond debt specifically: