 but with modified amounts and with a market predicting the specific responder's decision.

, a decision theory thought experiment. The setup is as follows:

There are two boxes designated A and B. The player is given a choice between taking only box B or taking both boxes A and B. There will be a Manifold prediction market which predicts whether the player takes just one box or both boxes.

Both boxes are transparent, i.e. the player knows exactly how much mana is contained inside them.

I will select a random participant in this market at close to be the player in the Newcomb's problem. After selecting them, I will create another market where Manifold predicts whether they will pick only one box. (The player is welcome to talk about their thinking, or to say nothing. They are not allowed to trade in the market.)

At the conclusion of that market, the amount in box B will be set, and the player will decide between taking only box B or both boxes. The player will receive a manalink for the amount of mana contained in the box or boxes they take.

This market resolves YES if they take only box B, and NO if they take both boxes.