Will President Trump be declared incapacitated under the 25th Amendment Section 4 during the 2025-2029 term?

Question

Resolves YES if during the US Presidential term starting January 2025, the Vice President and a majority of the Cabinet (or other relevant body) invokes Section 4 of the 25th Amendment to formally declare that "the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office" and cause the Vice President to serve as Acting President.

The duration of the incapacity does not matter for this question.

The President invoking section 3 of the 25th amendment does not count. The President exiting the office of the Presidency by death, resignation, etc does not count - in that event, the question resolves NO immediately, i.e. the President's successor does not count for the question.

(Original pre-election title: Will the next President be declared incapacitated under the 25th Amendment Section 4 during the 2025-2029 term?)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 8% chance (205 traders, as of May 9, 2026).