Will the "First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor" paper be retracted (by 2025)?

Question

Resolves YES if the following arxiv link is updated to include a retraction of the original results, before the end of 2025. NO otherwise.

Small experimental adjustments or clarifications won't count. The paper is allowed to produce a genuine new discovery, as long as the claim to have produced room-temperature ambient-pressure superconductors is retracted. If there is a disagreement among the authors, any author registering a retraction is sufficient. If the authors publish a retraction but don't bother updating the arxiv, I will likely still accept it as a retraction.

Statements by journalists or other scientists won't count.

Main paper: https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008

Companion paper: https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12037

This question is based on https://manifold.markets/Mira/will-the-first-roomtemperature-ambi but with a longer timeframe.

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Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

No — resolved on Jan 1, 2026 by Manifold Markets prediction market.