If a nuclear weapon is detonated offensively (non-test) before January 1, 2024, will the first such detonation be deliberate?

if any nuclear weapon is detonated offensively after October 3, 2022 and before January 1, 2024, and the first such detonation is deliberate. Resolves 

if the first such detonation is not deliberate. Resolves 

 distinguish between accidental/unauthorised, inadvertent, and deliberate nuclear launches or detonations:

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8645/first-detonation-accidentalunauthorized/

 and related questions to determine whether a nuclear weapon detonation counts as offensive and whether it counts as deliberate.