, a decision theory thought experiment. The setup is as follows:

There are two boxes designated A and B. The player is given a choice between taking only box B or taking both boxes A and B. There will be a Manifold prediction market which predicts whether the player takes just one box or both boxes.

Both boxes are transparent, i.e. the player knows exactly how much mana is contained inside them.

 was the randomly selected player. This market predicts whether the player will one-box: this market resolves YES if they take only box B, and NO if they take both boxes. The amount in Box B is set based on the closing price of this market. At the conclusion of this market, the player will decide between taking only box B or both boxes. The player will receive a manalink for the amount of mana contained in the box or boxes they take.