Will Leagues profit count only realized profits by Season 5?

Question

Resolves YES if in either Season 4 or Season 5, Leagues does not count unrealized profits. If it counts all realized profits, or if it counts only profits on resolved questions (a subset of realized profits), that would count as YES. (If leagues ceases to exist in Season 4 or 5, or no longer counts profits at all, resolves N/A.)

Pros:

Counting unrealized profits is only "accurate" if the market price is "correct". It creates an incentive to manipulate market prices to create paper profits.

Unrealized profits are often highly volatile

Cons:

You don't immediately benefit (or lose) for predictions made for later months. (Although if https://manifold.markets/JamesGrugett/will-leagues-profit-be-calculated-o is changed as well, those will eventually count in the month in which the question resolves.)

Also note, counting realized profits on unresolved questions might create problematic incentives as well - you might want to sell your position to realize the profits for league standings, or you might want to wait so you can count them next month. So I believe it would be better to count only resolved questions.

For this question it doesn't matter what non-profit numbers are included in Leagues (e.g. bonuses, etc)

Related: https://manifold.markets/JamesGrugett/will-leagues-profit-be-calculated-o

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Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

No — resolved on Sep 5, 2023 by Manifold Markets prediction market.