if a nuclear weapon is detonated with countervalue targeting after October 3, 2022 and before January 1, 2023. Otherwise 

 targeting is "the targeting of an opponent's assets that are of value but not actually a military threat, such as cities and civilian populations". Compared to nuclear strikes against 

 targets or battlefield targets, countervalue nuclear strikes would typically cause both many more immediate fatalities and much more smoke (increasing the risk of nuclear winter).

Resolution details (mostly copied from Metaculus):

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7461/total-countervalue-detonations-by-2050/

 and related questions to determine whether a nuclear weapon detonation counts as countervalue.

Will a countervalue nuclear detonation occur in 2022? (Countervalue = targeting civilian populations, not military targets)

 → Will a countervalue (non-military target) nuclear detonation occur in 2022?