This question aims to forecast the likelihood of escalation from tactical to strategic nuclear weapons.

 if no nuclear weapon is detonated offensively after October 3, 2022 and before January 1, 2024. If such a detonation occurs, resolves 

if within one year, any strategic nuclear weapon is detonated (that includes the case if the first detonation is strategic). Resolves 

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8584/nsnw-as-the-first-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/

 and related questions to determine whether a nuclear weapon detonation counts as offensive, and whether it counts as strategic.