 if no nuclear weapon is detonated offensively after October 3, 2022 and before January 1, 2024. If such a detonation occurs, resolves 

if within one year, any nuclear weapon is detonated with countervalue targeting (that includes the case if the first detonation is countervalue). Resolves 

 targeting is "the targeting of an opponent's assets that are of value but not actually a military threat, such as cities and civilian populations". Compared to nuclear strikes against 

 targets or battlefield targets, countervalue nuclear strikes would typically cause both many more immediate fatalities and much more smoke (increasing the risk of nuclear winter).

Resolution details (mostly copied from Metaculus):

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7461/total-countervalue-detonations-by-2050/

 and related questions to determine whether a nuclear weapon detonation counts as offensive and whether it counts as countervalue.

If a nuclear weapon is detonated offensively before 2024, will a countervalue nuclear detonation occur within 1 year? (Countervalue = targeting civilian populations, not military targets)

 → If a nuclear weapon is detonated offensively before 2024, will a countervalue (non-military target) nuclear detonation occur within 1 year?