 asks participants: "What do you believe was the probability that SBF committed willful fraud in the FTX collapse?" 

This is meant to measure the community's current beliefs. Please respond to the poll if you're interested. 

This market predicts the result of the poll. The poll will run until the end of January. The market resolves to the average (mean) poll response at that time.

(Note: the poll and the market are different things! Your predictions in this market are not a response to the poll, submit your poll response in the above form.)