Multi year: Will an AI be able to generate a full high quality movie to a prompt?

Question

Based off

(https://manifold.markets/embed/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener?r=Zmlyc3R1c2VyaGVyZQ)Resolves YES to each half-year this is possible. Resolves NO to each half year its not possible.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Second half 2027, followed by First half 2027 and Second half 2026 are most likely. See the market for live updates (71 traders, as of Sep 23, 2025).