AI resolves at least X% on SWE-bench WITH assistance, by 2028?

Question

Currently the SOTA has 4.80% resolves "with assistance":

[image]For the unassisted leaderboard, please refer to the following market:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/firstuserhere/ai-resolves-at-least-x-on-swebench)Leaderboard live:

(https://www.swebench.com/)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, X = 60, followed by X = 70 and X = 65 are most likely. See the market for live updates (22 traders, as of Mar 29, 2026).