Which parties will gain seats in the next German federal election?

Question

This market resolves based on the results of the next German federal election.

For each party listed:

Resolves YES if the party wins more seats in the Bundestag compared to the number of seats it won in the 2025 federal election

Resolves NO if the party wins the same number or fewer seats.

If no election is held by 2030, all options will resolve NO.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, AfD, followed by Grüne and Die Linke are most likely. See the market for live updates (23 traders, as of Sep 18, 2026).