Will there be a massive catastrophe caused by AI before 2030?

Question

By “massive catastrophe”, I mean any disaster that has caused at least 1,000,000 deaths or US$100 billion in damage directly attributable to AI, for example a pandemic virus engineered with the help of AI, or a cyberattack taking down some electrical grid.

Update 2026-05-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The catastrophe must be a single discrete incident, not a series of related actions or impacts. A series of AI-driven attacks that collectively exceed the damage threshold would not qualify.

Update 2026-05-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The number of individual attacks that caused a grid failure or similar event is not relevant to determining whether it was a single event. The creator will defer to moderators' consensus in ambiguous cases.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 27% chance (43 traders, as of Oct 2, 2026).