Will there be a massive catastrophe caused by AI before 2030?

Question

By “massive catastrophe”, I mean any disaster that has caused at least 1,000,000 deaths or US$100 billion in damage directly attributable to AI, for example a pandemic virus engineered with the help of AI, or a cyberattack taking down some electrical grid.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 27% chance (38 traders, as of Mar 31, 2026).